China, India and the future of the global economy

In the first part of the paper an overview of the long-term global economic growth forecasts is presented (e.g., forecasts of Uri Dadush and Bennett Stancil of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a report by HSBC, CitiGroup report, reports of PricewaterhouseCoopers, or Goldman Sachs reports). In this context, the diversified views and opinions on future economic development of China and India (currently considered as the fastest-growing major economies in the world) are presented. In the second part of the article, an extrapolative forecast of global GDP and an estimation of the economies of China and India in global production by 2050 based on the so-called evolutionary model of competition is outlined. The evolutionary model of competition enables to estimate the competitiveness of national economies, therefore in the second part of the paper we presents also the results of estimation of the competitiveness of the economies of India and China after World War II. One aim of that research is to compare the competitiveness of China and India with the leaders of economic development in the twentieth century, namely the United States, Great Britain, Germany, Japan and the European Union. The summary of these considerations are estimations the shares of GDP of China and India in the global product based on global scenarios of the competitiveness changes of these economies over the next 40 years.future studies; forecasting; globalization; economic growth

Evolutionary models’ comparative analysis. Methodology proposition based on selected neo-schumpeterian models of industrial dynamics

A methodology of comparative analysis of evolutionary models is proposed. The main aim of this proposition is to identify to what extend different models can be called âevolutionary onesâ. Each model is analysed by searching for answers to following questions:  Is the model dynamical one?  Is it focused on far-from-equilibrium analysis?  What are a unit of evolution and a unit of selection?  Is diversity and heterogeneity of economic agents and their behaviour observed?  Is search for innovation based on a concept of hereditary information (knowledge)?  What kinds of innovation does the model describe?  Does selection process lead to diversified rate of growth and spontaneity of development?  How economic agents set prices?  What kind of products are described by the model?  Are decision making procedures and investment procedures present in the model? Outline of selected schumpeterian models is accompanied by identification of crucial evolutionary characteristics of each model and a short indication of phenomena explained by that model.Evolutionary economics, neo-schumpeterian models, simulation

Are business cycles inevitable?

The simulation model of business cycles emergence is proposed. In the first section a preliminary model of well known hog’s cycle is presented. The hog’s cycle is used as a metaphor for more general model of business cycles, which is presented in the second section. Emergence of fluctuations requires a tuning of numerous factors (the investment and price delays, the growth rate of the market, the capital productivity growth rate, capital depreciation rate, elasticity of demand). It turns out that the greater the market growth rate and the more elastic (competitive) market the more probably is that the fluctuations are damped. We may venture to propose a kind of recipe to avoid (or at least to delimit) economic fluctuations: we ought to create friendly regulatory conditions for entrepreneurs to ensure highest potential long term growth rate and to minimize investment delays.business cycles, model, computer simulation

Long-term diffusion factors of technological development - an evolutionary model and case study

In the first part of this article, a short description of the most popular models of two competing technologies (the Fisher-Pry model and its modifications proposed by Blackman, Floyd, Sharif and Kabir) and the multi technological substitution models of Peterka and Marchetti-Nakiæenoviæ are presented. In the second section, we describe an evolutionary model of diffusion processes based on biological analogy, together with the method of its parameters’ identification using real data on technologies development. In the final sections the applications of that model to describe the real diffusion processes (namely, primary energy sources in the world energy consumption and the raw steel production in the United States) are presented. The feasibility of using the model to predict future shares of given technologies and to build alternative scenarios of future evolution of structure of the market is suggested.diffusion; substitution; evolution; simulation; s-curve; logistic curve; logistic function

Innovation regimes, entry and market structure

This paper contains a description of an evolutionary model of industrial dynamics and a report on the simulation study of the model. The presentation of the model is partitioned into two sections. In the first section I focus on the economic features of industrial development with no technological change embedded, while an extended version of this model with the search for innovation process included is presented in the next section. In the next two sections, results of the simulation study on technological regimes and firm entry is presented. Technological regimes relate to different types of innovation captured by the model, so I consider the cost regime, the technical performance regime and the capital productivity regime. In section III I investigate the influence of the different types of innovation on the development of the industry, particularly on industry concentration and on the products’ price distribution, and in the fourth section an evolution of industry structure with the possibility of firm entry is investigated.Evolutionary dynamics, innovation, technological regimes, firms’ entry

Panika roku 1907 – kryzys finansowy 2008,Sto lat budowania kreatywnego kapitalizmu

Usually, current Financial Crisis of 2008 is compared to the Great Depression of 1929. But there are some evidences that our current financial crisis has much more similarities and analogies to the crisis initiated by the panic in 1907. A brief analysis of both crises is presented. This analysis is conducted on the basis of the history of the United States of America, where both mentioned crises were initiated. However, we will search for the answer to the basic question, namely: how events in the early twentieth century shaped the history of the economies in the next hundred years, and how expected changes in the institutional arrangements after 2008 may be comparable to the revolutionary changes of the social order after 1907 (e.g., appearance the Federal Reserve System in 1913, the adoption of the 16th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, enabling the collection of taxes on personal income, growth and omnipotence of government agencies)

Are business cycles inevitable?

The simulation model of business cycles emergence is proposed. In the first section a preliminary model of well known hog’s cycle is presented. The hog’s cycle is used as a metaphor for more general model of business cycles, which is presented in the second section. Emergence of fluctuations requires a tuning of numerous factors (the investment and price delays, the growth rate of the market, the capital productivity growth rate, capital depreciation rate, elasticity of demand). It turns out that the greater the market growth rate and the more elastic (competitive) market the more probably is that the fluctuations are damped. We may venture to propose a kind of recipe to avoid (or at least to delimit) economic fluctuations: we ought to create friendly regulatory conditions for entrepreneurs to ensure highest potential long term growth rate and to minimize investment delays

China, India and the future of the global economy

In the first part of the paper an overview of the long-term global economic growth forecasts is presented (e.g., forecasts of Uri Dadush and Bennett Stancil of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a report by HSBC, CitiGroup report, reports of PricewaterhouseCoopers, or Goldman Sachs reports). In this context, the diversified views and opinions on future economic development of China and India (currently considered as the fastest-growing major economies in the world) are presented. In the second part of the article, an extrapolative forecast of global GDP and an estimation of the economies of China and India in global production by 2050 based on the so-called evolutionary model of competition is outlined. The evolutionary model of competition enables to estimate the competitiveness of national economies, therefore in the second part of the paper we presents also the results of estimation of the competitiveness of the economies of India and China after World War II. One aim of that research is to compare the competitiveness of China and India with the leaders of economic development in the twentieth century, namely the United States, Great Britain, Germany, Japan and the European Union. The summary of these considerations are estimations the shares of GDP of China and India in the global product based on global scenarios of the competitiveness changes of these economies over the next 40 years

Jak wspierać rozwój innowacji społecznych?

The fundamental question that attempts to be answered in this article is following: To what extend supporting and subsidizing of the development of social economy and social innovation by the European Union and European governments is needed and justified? Zasadnicze pytanie, na które podjęto próbę odpowiedzi w tym artykule to: Czy wspieranie rozwoju ekonomii społecznej i innowacji społecznych przez UE i rządy europejskie jest potrzebne i uzasadnione

Jak wspierać rozwój innowacji społecznych?

The fundamental question that attempts to be answered in this article is following: To what extend supporting and subsidizing of the development of social economy and social innovation by the European Union and European governments is needed and justified? Zasadnicze pytanie, na które podjęto próbę odpowiedzi w tym artykule to: Czy wspieranie rozwoju ekonomii społecznej i innowacji społecznych przez UE i rządy europejskie jest potrzebne i uzasadnione